Real estate prices: how to analyze them before buying or selling

The real estate market in Paris and the surrounding region is fluctuating. It can change quickly. Knowing how to analyze prices correctly will be a major asset for sellers and buyers. It will enable them to make the right decisions. To sell quickly and well on the one hand, and to buy under the best conditions for buyers on the other.

So how can you accurately interpret prices? Which sources should you consult? What pitfalls should you avoid? We will explore these points in this article.

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Understanding what “real estate prices” cover

Before comparing figures, you need to know what you are actually looking at. Because behind the words “real estate prices” lie several realities. A clear understanding of what we are talking about will clarify your analysis.

List price and actual sale price

The list price is the price you see advertised in the real estate listing. It is the price the seller hopes to get. But it is not necessarily the sale price at which the transaction will be concluded. The difference can be significant. In the Paris market, the difference between the list price and the sale price is often 5 to 10%.

The actual sale prices, signed at the notary's office, should be used as a reference for a reliable analysis.

The average price per square meter: an indicator to be used with caution

Widely used in many publications, including notarial publications, the average price per square meter is a relevant indicator but should be used with caution. In fact, within the same building, depending on the floor, characteristics, exposure, and quality of renovation, prices per square meter can vary by 50% or more.

There are also variations related to the size of the apartments. Small apartments tend to have higher prices per square meter, while very large apartments have lower prices per square meter.

Additional costs to be included in the price analysis

The price of a property is not limited to its sale price. Notary fees, co-ownership charges, renovation work, and taxes are all factors that affect the overall cost or profitability of an investment. An apartment listed at $10,000 per square meter that requires $1,500 per square meter in renovation work is not in the same league as a turnkey apartment.

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Where can you find reliable sources of information on real estate prices?

To effectively analyze real estate prices, it is not enough to take a quick look at real estate listings. You need to use reliable sources and cross-reference several of them.

Official data: the most reliable

The Notaires de France regularly publish statistics based on actual sale prices, with a delay of a few months. Their website allows you to consult prices per square meter by district or municipality, with historical data and trend indicators.

Another essential resource is the DVF (Demande de Valeur Foncière) database, provided by Etalab. The database provides access to transactions completed since 2014. It is a particularly effective tool for house sales. It is slightly less useful for apartment sales, as this database does not provide the information needed to carry out a valuation, such as the floor number, whether there is a lift, etc.

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Real estate portals: useful for an initial approach

Sites such as MeilleursAgents, SeLoger, Bien'ici, and PAP provide real-time estimates of average asking prices, sometimes with market tension indicators or negotiation ranges. These tools are useful for gauging the market as perceived by sellers, but they are by no means a reliable source for determining market prices in a given area or assessing the value of a property.

However, it is important to note that these prices are generally list prices, which may be inflated. It is essential not to use them to make a detailed and accurate estimate.

Local observatories and market studies

Some cities or districts have their own real estate observatories, often run by notary chambers, local authorities, or specialized agencies. These studies provide a more detailed reading of the market, sometimes with distinctions by micro-neighborhood or property type.

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Deciphering market trends

Real estate prices are not fixed. They fluctuate over time. It is important to keep this variable factor in mind in order to understand the dynamics of a neighborhood and be able to spot good opportunities.

Analyze real estate markets over time

It is tempting to focus on recent developments. However, a relevant analysis requires short-, medium-, and long-term observation.

• Over one year, you can identify reversals or stabilizations.
• Over three to five years, you can measure underlying trends (e.g., renewed interest in a neighborhood).
• Over ten years, you can observe complete cycles (decline, recovery, boom).

This helps you avoid overinterpreting a slight recent increase or, conversely, overlooking an ongoing recovery.

Refine your analysis at the neighborhood or even street level

In Paris and other large cities, the real estate market cannot be summed up by an average price per district. Two neighboring streets can have differences of several thousand dollars per square meter. Noisy streets, proximity to a subway station, a market, or a reputable school can make all the difference. This is where the concept of micro-markets comes in: it is at this level that the accuracy of an estimate is determined.

Take into account the type of property

Not all properties follow the same trends. Small properties (studios, one-bedroom apartments) are very sensitive to investor demand. Large family apartments follow a different, often more stable pattern. An unusual duplex, a ground floor apartment with a garden, or a top floor apartment with a view follow yet other rules. It is therefore important to always think in terms of market segments and not mix everything together.

Identify the criteria that influence prices

The price of a property does not depend solely on its size and address. Many criteria will influence the price up or down from the average price.

Location: the most important criterion, but one that needs to be refined

We often talk about the importance of location, but we need to look beyond the name of a neighborhood. Within the same area, several factors can affect the price per square foot:

• Is it a busy or quiet street?
• Is it close to public transportation?
  
• Are there good shops, reputable schools, or green spaces?
• Is the neighborhood up-and-coming or already established?
  

It is this qualitative assessment of the location that explains why two properties just a few hundred meters apart can have a price difference of 15 to 20%, and sometimes even more.

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Property features: the importance of detail

The general condition, brightness, floor, room layout, views, elevator... All these factors have a significant impact on the value of a property. For the same surface area, a dual-aspect apartment on the 4th floor with a balcony and unobstructed views will always be valued much higher than a dark ground floor apartment.

Properties requiring major renovation work may sometimes be discounted, sometimes excessively or insufficiently, depending on current supply and demand.

Rarity and the “love at first sight” effect

A rare property (top floor with terrace, mansion, loft with patio, etc.) is not negotiated like a standard property. Less sensitive to averages, it follows the logic of supply and demand in a very small segment. It is often these properties that trigger impulse buys... and unexpected price increases.

Compare intelligently to estimate the value of a property

Once all the criteria have been identified, they must be analyzed correctly. Poor comparisons and analyses can lead to bad buying or selling decisions.

Don't rely solely on average prices per square foot

An average price per square foot, even when refined by neighborhood, is an important starting point, but not a conclusion. It gives an overall trend, but does not take into account the specific characteristics of each property. For example, in a given building, the price can vary significantly depending on the floor, exposure, or the presence of an elevator. Variations in Paris can be as much as 50% or more for exceptional apartments.

A true comparison is made by selecting properties that are truly comparable, recently sold, with similar characteristics: surface area, floor, condition, layout, and precise location.

Take into account the work needed and the actual condition of the property

Two apartments of the same size can have differences of around $1,500/m² if one is completely renovated and the other needs to be redone. It is therefore necessary to include a realistic estimate of the work required (not the real estate agent's estimate, which is often underestimated) in the analysis and adjust the price accordingly.

Conversely, some renovated properties may be overvalued because the work has not been done tastefully or to a high standard, which distorts the real value.

Let the data speak for itself

Nothing can replace facing reality. Observe listings, follow properties that remain online or those that disappear quickly, visit comparable properties: all of this will refine your perception of the market. An experienced professional—particularly a property hunter—knows how to interpret these subtle signals and accurately guide the estimate.

Buying or selling at the right price: pitfalls to avoid

Even with all the data at your fingertips, it is possible to make mistakes when analyzing a property price. Very often this is due to rushing the analysis or making personal projections. Analysis errors can be costly.

Overestimating a property for sale

This is the big trap that most sellers fall into. They want to test the market with a price that is too ambitious, or even unrealistic. The property risks remaining on the market for too long and losing its appeal. It may end up selling for less than its real value.

In a real estate market where buyers are well informed, the critical period is in the first few weeks after the property is listed. A fair price attracts more visitors, generates offers, and sometimes allows for more favorable real estate negotiations for the seller.

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Relying solely on advertised prices to buy

Another mistake made by sellers is relying on real estate ad prices to estimate the asking price for their apartment. Often, the prices listed in ads are overestimated by 5 to 15%. This is especially true in a sluggish real estate market.

The only useful data is the actual sale price. It is risky for a buyer to base their budget or offer on an attractive listing without checking that it is in line with the market.

Ignoring the local context and timing

Buying a property because it “seems cheaper” than others, without understanding why, can be dangerous. Is it a dark ground floor? Is the building poorly managed? You should always look for what justifies the price, whether it's higher or lower.

In addition, the economic context, interest rates, and even the season can play a role. For example, selling in winter or during a rate hike can limit interest and therefore drive prices down.

The advantage of a real estate hunter to refine your analysis

Even with the best online tools and all the available data, it is difficult to get an accurate and nuanced view of the real estate market. This is where the added value of a real estate hunter comes in. Their experience and the tools at their disposal will prevent you from making the wrong decisions.

For example, at Parlez-moi de Paris, we give our buyers access to the Notaires database (which is only available to real estate professionals). This tool is by far the most effective way to estimate the price of a property.

In-depth knowledge of the area

Real estate hunters don't just read the figures: they live and breathe the market on a daily basis. They know which properties are selling, which ones are stagnating, in which neighborhoods prices are really falling, and where buyers are returning in force. They also pick up on micro-local trends before they appear in the statistics.

At Parlez-moi de Paris, this knowledge is based on years of experience and an active presence in the field since 2009, with a dense network of agents, notaries, and colleagues. This is what enables us to offer a personalized, case-by-case analysis that is much more relevant than automated estimates.

An objective and strategic perspective

A real estate hunter is on the buyer's side. They have no interest in embellishing reality. Their role is to protect the buyer from a bad purchase, help them understand the true value for money of a property, and support them in the negotiation process.

Their involvement often prevents impulsive, poorly evaluated purchases or, conversely, helps identify genuine undervalued opportunities that others would have overlooked.

They can also alert you to hidden costs (future work, charges, taxes) and help you adjust your offer to the right level, without overpaying... or missing out on a great opportunity.

Conclusion

Analyzing real estate prices is not just a matter of consulting a few averages on the internet. It involves research, comparison, and interpretation. It requires both perspective and precision.

In a market as diverse as Paris and other major cities, rigorous analysis can make the difference between a good deal and a purchase you regret. While some buyers manage to navigate this complexity on their own, many benefit from guidance.

Since 2009, Parlez-moi de Paris has been helping its clients accurately decipher the market, avoid pitfalls, and, above all, buy with confidence. If you would like to move forward with your project with expert, independent guidance at your side, let's talk.

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