The Paris Real Estate Market in 2027: What Are the Forecasts?
Following the lull in the Paris real estate market in 2026, many questions arise for 2027, such as the presidential elections, a possible change in policy regarding real estate market regulations, and a potential rise in interest rates.
We’ve seen this in previous elections: several months before the election, some buyers prefer to wait for a clearer picture before making a decision.
Does that mean 2027 will be a bad year to buy in Paris? Not necessarily. On the plus side, slower markets tend to favor buyers.
So, what might the Paris real estate market look like in 2027? And more importantly, how should you approach it if you’re planning to buy?
Where does the Paris market really stand as we approach 2027?
Here are some very telling figures.
Prices per square meter for existing homes in Paris in 2026
- Early 2026: €9,600/m²
- Today: €9,657/m²
As we can see, the Paris real estate market has remained stable in 2026.
Sources: Paris Chamber of Notaries and Meilleurs Agents
Mortgage Rates in the Île-de-France Region in 2026
- Early 2026: 3.10% over 20 years
- Today: 3.25% over 20 years
A slight increase in rates began in the spring.
Source: Meilleurtaux
Regulations influencing the market in 2026
- Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) reform: a new calculation method that is more favorable to electrically heated homes → a reduction in the number of energy-inefficient buildings, particularly significant for small Parisian units. In 2027, a second improvement in the rating for electrically heated homes is expected.
- Rent control in Paris: a major constraint on rental investments.
- Widespread mandatory building energy performance certificates (DPE) for multi-unit buildings: as of January 1, 2026, the requirement has been extended to condominium buildings with 50 units or fewer → greater transparency regarding the building’s energy performance and potential renovation work.
- Higher transfer taxes in Paris: an increase of 0.5 percentage points → making the purchase of existing homes more expensive.
- Energy-inefficient buildings: ongoing effects of the ban on renting out G-rated units and the rent freeze on F- and G-rated units → larger price discounts and more significant trade-offs on these properties.
- Energy-efficiency renovations / condominiums: increasing requirements under the multi-year renovation plan (PPT) → future condominium renovation projects are playing an increasingly important role in purchasing decisions.
The landscape has become more complex.
Mortgage rates likely to be slightly higher in 2027
Mortgage rates could rise slightly again in 2027. Available forecasts suggest an average rate of around 3.6%, with a scenario where rates could reach up to 4% if financial conditions deteriorate.
For a buyer, the difference is far from negligible.
For a monthly payment of €2,500 over 20 years:
- at 3%, you can borrow approximately €451,000
- at 3.5%, approximately €431,000
- at 4%, approximately €412,000
Between 3% and 4%, borrowing capacity therefore decreases by approximately 39,000 €, or nearly 9%.
But we must also look at the other side of the equation. Higher rates reduce the number of buyers and their purchasing power. This generally ends up putting pressure on prices and increasing the opportunities for negotiation.
This adjustment isn’t immediate. It often takes a few months for sellers to accept the new market conditions. It’s during this transition period, in fact, that opportunities can arise: credit is more expensive, but the balance of power is already beginning to shift in favor of buyers.
That said, there’s no room for unwarranted optimism: a rise in mortgage rates is never good news for the market. It reduces buyers’ purchasing power and generally ends up dampening the number of transactions.
The presidential election is expected to slow down the market
We’ve already been through three presidential elections since the founding of Parlez-moi de Paris, and each time we’ve observed the same phenomenon: in the months leading up to the election, some buyers prefer to wait.
In 2027, this wait-and-see attitude could be even more pronounced, given that the proposed housing policies are quite different. Depending on the election outcome, we could see some continuity with current regulations or, conversely, move toward greater liberalization of the housing market.
Taxation, rental investments, rent controls, and energy-efficient renovations: for a homebuyer—and even more so for an investor—the implications can be significant.
This caution is already evident: according to CAFPI, one in three French people considering a rental investment prefers to wait until the 2027 elections before taking action.
We can therefore reasonably anticipate a more wait-and-see Paris real estate market during the first months of 2027, at least until the political landscape and the resulting policies become clearer.
A likely slowdown in the first half of 2027
The dynamics could be fairly simple:
Slightly higher interest rates + presidential election
⬇️
Fewer buyers in the market
⬇️
Fewer viewings and fewer offers
⬇️
Slight decline in average prices
⬇️
Longer time to sell
{{cta-green-en}}
What real estate regulations will follow the election?
Beyond political uncertainty, decisions made after the election could have very concrete consequences for the Paris real estate market.
Several scenarios are possible:
Certain trends could therefore restore the appeal of real estate investment, while others might encourage homeowners and investors to remain cautious.
And that is precisely the problem with just a few months to go before the presidential election: we don’t yet know what the rules of the game will be after the election.
For a buyer looking for a primary residence, the impact may be relatively limited. For an investor focused on after-tax returns and rental potential, it can be much more significant.
Not all apartments follow the market in the same way
This is a key characteristic of the Parisian market: even when the market slows down, the best apartments continue to sell well.
A bright apartment with a good layout, minimal renovation needs, a desirable floor level, few flaws, and located in a sought-after neighborhood can sell very quickly.
Conversely, the slowdown is felt much more acutely with properties that are imperfect or priced too high.
That is why talking about a general decline or rise in the Parisian market has its limitations. In Paris, there isn’t a single real estate market but rather a multitude of micro-markets.
In 2027, just as today, the quality of the property and its asking price will remain key factors.
Our forecast for the Parisian real estate market in 2027
Our forecast for the entire year of 2027 is fairly clear: we anticipate a slight decline in the average price of apartments in Paris.
The likely rise in mortgage rates is expected to continue weighing on buyers’ purchasing power. In our view, this is the most important economic factor to watch in 2027. The wait-and-see attitude surrounding the presidential election is likely to accentuate this trend during the first half of the year.
We therefore anticipate relatively low transaction volumes in the first half of the year, accompanied by downward pressure on average prices.
And after the election?
That’s where the forecasts become more challenging.
If we remain on a political course relatively similar to the one France has followed for many years, we believe that some of the buyers and sellers who have put their plans on hold will return to the market.
There could then be a catch-up effect in the second half of the year—not a surge in transactions or prices, but a gradual return to a more active and stable market.
If, on the other hand, the election leads to a much more significant political shift, there will be greater uncertainty.
A significant easing of tax burdens or regulatory constraints on real estate could boost the market. But it would be too simplistic to focus solely on housing policy.
We will also need to monitor the reaction of the French economy, investors, financial markets, interest rates, and consumer confidence. We have not experienced any major political changes in France recently. Therefore, given this scenario, I prefer to acknowledge that there is a genuine unknown rather than claim to predict the Paris real estate market’s reaction today.
In any case, we do not anticipate either a collapse or a surge in the Parisian market in 2027.
High-quality apartments should continue to hold up very well
The decline in the average Parisian price will not affect all apartments equally.
High-quality and well-appointed apartments should retain their full appeal. They remain scarce in Paris, and demand for this type of property remains strong. An apartment that combines the sought-after qualities—location, natural light, floor level, floor plan, view, and the absence of major flaws—will continue to find buyers.
The wait-and-see attitude in the first half of the year could simply delay some transactions. If sellers and buyers of high-end apartments decide to wait until after the election, we might even see a resurgence of activity in this segment in the second half of the year.
